Campaign Strategy Update

Rick Davis, the campaign manager for McCain 2008, has a new strategy video up, explaining the path John McCain's path to victory for November. You can find it here.

Campaign Update

The General Election looms ahead. The reason for the lack of posts in the last few months has been because much of what has been going on has been behind the scenes, at least organizationally. However, things have matured enough now that I can begin to describe a little of what is going on. Right now I want to discuss the McCain Campaign in the Central Coast. Some changes have taken place since the primaries have ended and I want to explain how things are going to look from now on.

Right now the Central Coast Chairman for McCain 2008 is Rob Bryn. His co-Chair is Donna Jordan. All of the county chairs and other chairman and women report to Rob and Donna.

The Congressional District Chairman have been reassigned or have been absorbed into the County Organizations. The San Luis Obispo Chair is Dr. Martha Bordonaro, wife of SLO Republicans Chair (and former Assemblyman) Tom Bordonaro.

Christina Chiappe is going to be the Events and Volunteer Coordinator for McCain 2008 in the Central Coast; she is currently the President of the Cal Poly College Republicans.

Yours Truly is switching from Chairman of the 23rd Congressional District to be the Regional Chair for Young Republican/College Republicans in the Central Coast.

Otherwise, all County chairs will be the same.

This year the McCain campaign is working especially close with the RNC managed Victory 2008. This includes fund raising efforts, with joint fund raising events being held with money being apportioned according to legal limits and need. This will be described in greater depth later.

I hope to have a further update tomorrow or Friday.

Update Coming Tomorrow

Sorry for the lack of posting, updates will be coming tomorrow.

Update: Experiencing Internet Problems, will update soon hopefully.

Notes on the Future

I will be attending a campaign school hosted by the SLO County Lincoln Club on the 29th of March. While there I also will be meeting up with various people associated with the local GOP and McCain efforts. Hopefully we will be able to organize things so that this blog, and its SLO counter-part, will be much more active and helpful than they have been lately. More info should be forthcoming after the 29th.

John McCain Wins the Republican Nomination

Its official now. John McCain has won the necessary delegates and will be the Republican nominee for President. I will post more news as I get it.

Meanwhile, it looks like the Democratic race will continue on for quite a while. If Hillary hangs on, we may very well see a brokered convention for the Democrats in August.

John Wins the Chesapeake Primaries

I have been taking some time off, so posting has been sparse as you can see. But in the meantime John has won the Chesapeake Primaries. At this point it is mathematically impossible for Mike Huckabee to win the nomination. It is pure selfish interest for him to stay in now, solely to build name recognition and organization for a later Presidential run.

Remarks by John McCain at CPAC 2008

Here is John's speech, in full, before CPAC earlier today in Washington D.C. :

Thank you. Thank you for inviting me. It's been a little while since I've had the honor of addressing you, and I appreciate very much your courtesy to me today. We should do this more often. I hope you will pardon my absence last year, and understand that I intended no personal insult to any of you. I was merely pre-occupied with the business of trying to escape the distinction of pre-season frontrunner for the Republican nomination, which, I'm sure some of you observed, I managed to do in fairly short order. But, now, I again have the privilege of that distinction, and this time I would prefer to hold on to it for a while.

I know I have a responsibility, if I am, as I hope to be, the Republican nominee for President, to unite the party and prepare for the great contest in November. And I am acutely aware that I cannot succeed in that endeavor, nor can our party prevail over the challenge we will face from either Senator Clinton or Senator Obama, without the support of dedicated conservatives, whose convictions, creativity and energy have been indispensible to the success our party has had over the last quarter century. Many of you have disagreed strongly with some positions I have taken in recent years. I understand that. I might not agree with it, but I respect it for the principled position it is. And it is my sincere hope that even if you believe I have occasionally erred in my reasoning as a fellow conservative, you will still allow that I have, in many ways important to all of us, maintained the record of a conservative. Further, I hope you will grant that I have defended many positions we share just as ardently as I have made my case for positions that have provoked your opposition. If not, thank you for this opportunity to make my case today.

I am proud to be a conservative, and I make that claim because I share with you that most basic of conservative principles: that liberty is a right conferred by our Creator, not by governments, and that the proper object of justice and the rule of law in our country is not to aggregate power to the state but to protect the liberty and property of its citizens. And like you, I understand, as Edmund Burke observed, that "whenever a separation is made between liberty and justice, neither . . . is safe."

While I have long worked to help grow a public majority of support for Republican candidates and principles, I have also always believed, like you, in the wisdom of Ronald Reagan, who warned in an address to this conference in 1975, that "a political party cannot be all things to all people. It must represent certain fundamental beliefs which must not be compromised to political expediency or simply to swell its numbers."

I attended my first CPAC conference as the invited guest of Ronald Reagan, not long after I had returned from overseas, when I heard him deliver his "shining city upon a hill" speech. I was still a naval officer then, but his words inspired and helped form my own political views, just as Ronald Reagan's defense of America's cause in Vietnam and his evident concern for American prisoners of war in that conflict inspired and were a great comfort to those of us who, in my friend Jerry Denton's words, had the honor of serving "our country under difficult circumstances." I am proud, very proud, to have come to public office as a foot soldier in the Reagan Revolution. And if a few of my positions have raised your concern that I have forgotten my political heritage, I want to assure you that I have not, and I am as proud of that association today as I was then. My record in public office taken as a whole is the record of a mainstr eam conservative. I believe today, as I believed twenty-five years ago, in small government; fiscal discipline; low taxes; a strong defense, judges who enforce, and not make, our laws; the social values that are the true source of our strength; and, generally, the steadfast defense of our rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, which I have defended my entire career as God-given to the born and unborn.

Those are my beliefs, and you need not examine only my past votes and speeches to assure yourselves that they are my genuine convictions. You can take added confidence from the positions I have defended during this campaign. I campaigned in Iowa in opposition to agriculture subsidies. I campaigned in New Hampshire against big government mandated health care and for a free market solution to the problem of unavailable and unaffordable health care. I campaigned in Michigan for the tax incentives and trade policies that will create new and better jobs in that economically troubled state. I campaigned in Florida against the national catastrophic insurance fund bill that passed the House of Representatives and defended my opposition to the prescription drug benefit bill that saddled Americans with yet another hugely expensive entitlement program. I have argued to make the Bush tax cuts permanent, to reduce the corporate tax rate and abolish the AMT. I have defended my position on protecting our Second Amendment rights, including my votes against waiting periods, bans on the so-called "assault weapons," and illegitimate lawsuits targeting gun manufacturers. I have proudly defended my twenty-four year pro-life record. Throughout this campaign, I have defended the President's brave decision to increase troop levels in Iraq to execute a long overdue counterinsurgency that has spared us the terrible calamity of losing that war. I held these positions because I believed they were in the best interests of my party and country."

Surely, I have held other positions that have not met with widespread agreement from conservatives. I won't pretend otherwise nor would you permit me to forget it. On the issue of illegal immigration, a position which provoked the outspoken opposition of many conservatives, I stood my ground aware that my position would imperil my campaign. I respect your opposition for I know that the vast majority of critics to the bill based their opposition in a principled defense of the rule of law. And while I and other Republican supporters of the bill were genuine in our intention to restore control of our borders, we failed, for various and understandable reasons, to convince Americans that we were. I accept that, and have pledged that it would be among my highest priorities to secure our borders first, and only after we achieved widespread consensus that our borders are secure, would we address other aspects of the problem in a wa y that defends the rule of law and does not encourage another wave of illegal immigration.

All I ask of any American, conservative, moderate, independent, or enlightened Democrat, is to judge my record as a whole, and accept that I am not in the habit of making promises to my country that I do not intend to keep. I hope I have proven that in my life even to my critics. Then vote for or against me based on that record, my qualifications for the office, and the direction where I plainly state I intend to lead our country. If I am so fortunate as to be the Republican nominee for President, I will offer Americans, in what will be a very challenging and spirited contest, a clearly conservative approach to governing. I will make my case to voters, no matter what state they reside in, in the same way. I will not obscure my positions from voters who I fear might not share them. I will stand on my convictions, my conservative convictions, and trust in the good sense of the voters, and in my confidence that conservative pr inciples still appeal to a majority of Americans, Republicans, Independents and Reagan Democrats.

Often elections in this country are fought within the margins of small differences. This one will not be. We are arguing about hugely consequential things. Whomever the Democrats nominate, they would govern this country in a way that will, in my opinion, take this country backward to the days when government felt empowered to take from us our freedom to decide for ourselves the course and quality of our lives; to substitute the muddled judgment of large and expanding federal bureaucracies for the common sense and values of the American people; to the timidity and wishful thinking of a time when we averted our eyes from terrible threats to our security that were so plainly gathering strength abroad. It is shameful and dangerous that Senate Democrats are blocking an extension of surveillance powers that enable our intelligence and law enforcement to defend our country against radical Islamic extremists. This election is going to be about big things, not small things. And I intend to fight as hard as I can to ensure that our principles prevail over theirs.

Senator Clinton and Senator Obama want to increase the size of the federal government.

I intend to reduce it. I will not sign a bill with earmarks in it, any earmarks in it. I will fight for the line item veto, and I will not permit any expansion whatsoever of the entitlement programs that are bankrupting us. On the contrary, I intend to reform those programs so that government is no longer in that habit of making promises to Americans it does not have the means to keep.

Senator Clinton and Senator Obama will raise your taxes.

I intend to cut them. I will start by making the Bush tax cuts permanent. I will cut corporate tax rates from 35 to 25% to keep industries and jobs in this country. I will end the Alternate Minimum Tax. And I won't let a Democratic Congress raise your taxes and choke the growth of our economy.

They will offer a big government solution to health care insurance coverage.

I intend to address the problem with free market solutions and with respect for the freedom of individuals to make important choices for themselves.

They will appoint to the federal bench judges who are intent on achieving political changes that the American people cannot be convinced to accept through the election of their representatives.

I intend to nominate judges who have proven themselves worthy of our trust that they take as their sole responsibility the enforcement of laws made by the people's elected representatives, judges of the character and quality of Justices Roberts and Alito, judges who can be relied upon to respect the values of the people whose rights, laws and property they are sworn to defend.

Senator Clinton and Senator Obama will withdraw our forces from Iraq based on an arbitrary timetable designed for the sake of political expediency, and which recklessly ignores the profound human calamity and dire threats to our security that would ensue.

I intend to win the war, and trust in the proven judgment of our commanders there and the courage and selflessness of the Americans they have the honor to command. I share the grief over the terrible losses we have suffered in its prosecution. There is no other candidate for this office who appreciates more than I do just how awful war is. But I know that the costs in lives and treasure we would incur should we fail in Iraq will be far greater than the heartbreaking losses we have suffered to date. And I will not allow that to happen.

They won't recognize and seriously address the threat posed by an Iran with nuclear ambitions to our ally, Israel, and the region.

I intend to make unmistakably clear to Iran we will not permit a government that espouses the destruction of the State of Israel as its fondest wish and pledges undying enmity to the United States to possess the weapons to advance their malevolent ambitions.

Senator Clinton and Senator Obama will concede to our critics that our own actions to defend against its threats are responsible for fomenting the terrible evil of radical Islamic extremism, and their resolve to combat it will be as flawed as their judgment.

I intend to defeat that threat by staying on offense and by marshaling every relevant agency of our government, and our allies, in the urgent necessity of defending the values, virtues and security of free people against those who despise all that is good about us.

These are but a few of the differences that will define this election. They are very significant differences, and I promise you, I intend to contest these issues on conservative grounds and fight as hard as I can to defend the principles and positions we share, and to keep this country safe, proud, prosperous and free.

We have had a few disagreements, and none of us will pretend that we won't continue to have a few. But even in disagreement, especially in disagreement, I will seek the counsel of my fellow conservatives. If I am convinced my judgment is in error, I will correct it. And if I stand by my position, even after benefit of your counsel, I hope you will not lose sight of the far more numerous occasions when we are in complete accord.

I began by assuring you that we share a conception of liberty that is the bedrock of our beliefs as conservatives. As you know, I was deprived of liberty for a time in my life, and while my love of liberty is no greater than yours, you can be confident that mine is the equal of any American's. It is a deep and unwavering love. My life experiences in service to our country inform my political judgments. They are at the core of my convictions. I am pro-life and an advocate for the Rights of Man everywhere in the world because of them, because I know that to be denied liberty is an offense to nature and nature's Creator. I will never waver in that conviction, I promise you. I know in this country our liberty will not be seized in a political revolution or by a totalitarian government. But, rather, as Burke warned, it can be "nibbled away, for expedience, and by parts." I am alert to that risk and will defend against it, and ta ke comfort from the knowledge that I will be encouraged in that defense by my fellow conservatives.

You have heard me say before that for all my reputation as a maverick, I have only found true happiness in serving a cause greater than my self-interest. For me, that cause has always been our country, and the ideals that have made us great. I have been her imperfect servant for many years, and I have made many mistakes. You can attest to that, but need not. For I know them well myself. But I love her deeply and I will never, never tire of the honor of serving her. I cannot do that without your counsel and support. And I am grateful, very grateful, that you have given me this opportunity to ask for it.

Thank you and God bless you.

Its Settled

Mitt Romney has officially suspended his campaign today. I haven't had a chance to see it yet, but I have heard that his speech was graceful and stirring. Rather than continue a hopeless bid, Mitt has done the best thing for the party and the country, and I salute him for it. Mike Huckabee is still in the race, but I think its safe to say he is using the time to build a national organization that he can run with again in 2012 or 2016.

Super Tuesday

I have now had some time to mull over the results from yesterday, and offer an assessment of the current situation for the nomination for both parties. Let us start with the Democrats first.

For the second time, I thought that Obama might carry the day. I thought, based on the latest polling, that Obama had a decent chance here in California, and several other spots as well. I didn't expect him to sweep her away, but I did expect him to beat her by a small but noticeable margin. As things stand now both are roughly equal in terms of states won and delegates won. Right after the results came in many people, including yours truly, thought that we might be heading for a brokered convention for the Democrats, or at least, a situation where the Super Delegates decided the eventual Democratic nominee. Such a situation would probably help Hillary out the most, as she has the greater number of machine connections, and personal favors owed. In such an event, the Democratic nominee would be dogged by rumors of back-room deals and could be handicapped in the general election.

However, there are some signs this may not come to pass. My thoughts even just a few hours ago were that this situation would probably repeat itself. It would look as if Obama would finally surge over Hillary, but in the end her Machine would save her to fight on. Now come rumors that her campaign staff are not getting paid. This is very ill news indeed for her campaign. She has apparently loaned her campaign 5 million dollars, yet another bad sign. Meanwhile, Obama looks set to raise 30 million dollars. I said long ago, well before this blog was created, that Hillary would likely win a short, furious nomination race but lose a protracted race. I believed that her high unfavorables, coupled with the re-airing of dirty laundry from the Clinton years, would help galvanize support against her. That may yet come to pass. She does have a hefty machine behind her, but if she runs out of money... well, like a car that runs out of fuel, her campaign may stutter then stall.


Now for the Republican race. I think that there were two significant events last night. First, Mike Huckabee did well in the South. He won fives states, all southern. These wins did several things. They gave Huckabee a nice bunch of delegates, giving him some clout come the convention. Secondly, his wins denied Romney a chance to show he can do well in primaries where has hasn't lived for a while, and that he can win in the south. Lastly, these wins give Huckabee a compelling reason to stay in the race. Its true that he is still a regional candidate, doing well only in the south and areas with lots of Evangelicals. However, he can still pull critical votes away from Romney across the board.

The second most important event was really two events: John winning in Missouri and California. These two wins, especially the later, give John a delegate lead that is essentially insurmountable. At this point, Mitt Romney can only realistically hope to create a brokered convention. Which would, I think, only result in Mike Huckabee leveraging his votes for a VP slot. I suspect that Mitt will stay in for a week or two, test the waters after the effects of Super Tuesday have filtered out, then "stop active campaiging", if you will. That way he can jump back in should things change somehow. At this point John's primary goal will be work on uniting the party and bringing movement conservatives into the fold.

A Big Thank You

Before I talk about the ramifications of yesterday's vote, I wanted to thank a number of people.

I want to thank Jerad and all of the UCSB College Republicans who hosted me two weeks ago when I came to explain why I support John McCain, and why they should consider supporting him as well. They were warm and receptive, and I want to thank them for making the trip worthwhile.

I also want to thank Cliff Holt, who volunteered his time to help support John McCain here in California. Cliff is a UCSB senior who helped us at the phone bank on Monday for a number of hours; a rather unexciting task that he performed admirably.

Cory Bantilan is another person I would like to thank. Cory was a former Rudy supporter who came over when Rudy endorsed John. He helped set up phone-banks for John in the Santa Barbara area and gave our campaign in the 23rd Congressional District a much needed boost. Thanks a bunch Cory.

Greg Gandrud was Rudy Giualian's counter-part to our own Rob Bryn here in the Central Coast. Like Cory, he swiftly moved to support John and got many other Rudy supporters to join into the team as well. This proved critical as things approached the wire. He also helped get yours truly on the Channel 3 news as well, for which I tip my hat to him earnestly.

Cory, Greg and the other Rudy people in the Central Coast and across California were instrumental in giving John McCain a huge victory here in California. A big thanks goes out to them.

To anyone I forgot to mention in Santa Barbara, my sincerest apologies. I will try and update this as time goes along to include anyone my faulty memory omitted.

John McCain Wins California!

The Official California Secretary of State numbers can be found here. But it does look so far as if John won here in California, and by a larger margin than many predicted. Its late, and full info won't come for a while, so I will update the post tomorrow.

McCain and the Supreme Court

The Wall Street Journal has an excellent article up on why to vote for John McCain, with the Supreme Court playing a central role. Read it all.

Latest News

First off, a reminder that tomorrow, Monday, starting at 5:30 a phone bank will be operating in Santa Barbara. E-mail us at McCain2008sb@gmail.com for more info.

Secondly, California is NOT a postmark state. That means if you haven't turned your absentee ballot in yet, you will probably need to drop it off at a polling center, or take it into the County Clerk 's office.

Rick Davis, John's campaign manager, has released a new memo explaining the current strategy going into Super Tuesday.

Lastly, there have been several more recent endorsements, including former Gov. Pete Wilson, as well as local Assemblyman Sam Blakeslee.

Phone Banking Opportunities- Updated

Thanks to the support of some Rudy Giuliani supporters here in Santa Barbara county, it appears we may have several phone banks that will be open to us before the Primary this Tuesday. For anyone interested in helping out, e-mail us at Mccain2008sb@gmail.com .

Update: We have confirmed that we will have a phone bank in Santa Barbara this Monday to help make calls on behalf of Senator McCain. If you would like more info, send a request to the e-mail address above.

Batten Down the Hatches-Negative Ads Incoming

Hello everyone. As we get down to the wire on the primary I have the unfortunate displeasure of informing you that State HQ has let me know that Attack Ads are on the way. I am not sure if Santa Barbara county will get any, but I wanted to warn everyone. Here is the message I received from HQ:

It has come to our attention that there is going to be a very very negative attack that will include phone calls and mail pieces targeting John McCain. You may receive this on your answering machine and in your mail box. If you do receive it, please contact us immediately and if possible make a digital recording and/or scan the mail pieces and send it to us and we can respond to this negative, mean-spirited, despicable campaign tactic immediately in the national media.

Please send to all of your county chairs, congressional chairs, veterans and volunteers.

Thank you for your vigilance and onward to victory!

If you receive or hear about any attacks, let us know as soon as possible. Post here on the blog as well.

GOTV

February 5th is fast approaching, and Get Out The Vote efforts are kicking into full swing. Be sure to talk to all your friends and family who are registered to vote and encourage them to vote for John McCain in the primary. If they have any questions, be sure to direct them to the campaign website. Oh, and don't forget to mention the endorsements by Rudy Giuliani and Gov. Schwarzenegger.

John McCain Gets Two Major Endorsments

John McCain has received two major endorsements within the last two days.

Former presidential contender Rudy Giuliani, and California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Things are continuing to look very good for Super Tuesday.

C-SPAN Event at UC Santa Barbara-Updated

I attended the C-SPAN event in San Luis Obispo today, and have heard they will be visiting the University of California, Santa Barbara tomorrow, the 30th of January. As I get more info I will update this post.

Update: Unfortunately, the event turned out to be a dud. The C-SPAN bus was put in a place that gathered little to no attention, and setting up a table wasn't even worthwhile.

John McCain Wins Florida!

Foxnews just called Florida for John McCain.

Update: As of 9:00 PM PST, the vote looks like 36% McCain, 31% Romney, 15% Giuliani, 14% Huckabee and 3% Ron Paul (So much for that REvoLution thing of theirs).

This is a huge win for John. He has the momentum coming out of Florida going into Super Tuesday. He now leads in the Delegate count as well. Rudy Giuliani's campaign finishes his weeks long implosion. Unfortunately for Rudy, his late state strategy was a bust, and so is his campaign. Rumors are flying that he is going to drop out and endorse John McCain soon, and I figure those are rumors that just might be true. With Rudy endorsing John, Super Tuesday is looking pretty good.

Two Major Florida Endorsements

John McCain has received two significant endorsements in the last few days in Florida. The first is from Senator Mel Martinez. His support might be crucial in helping swing around the Cuban vote in the Florida Republican primary.

The second, and even more important endorsement, comes from Governor Charlie Crist. Crist is very popular, 65% support right now from what I have heard, and his endorsement is excellent news for John.

Don't forget that you too can help with the Florida primary, by helping make phone calls into Florida to encourage people to vote for John. To find out more, check here.

Another Debate Tonight

Tonight it will be on MSBC, at 9 PM EST, or 6 PM PST. Be sure to tune in; right now it looks increasingly like Rudy Giuliani's last stand.

Observation on Florida

Based on the latest date from the RCP Average, as well as a gut hunch and polls like this, I believe that Florida, far from being the last stand of Rudy Giuliani, will in fact turn out to be a battle between Mitt Romney and John McCain. Rudy is continuing into free-fall, and I think his campaign is a goner.

Stormin' Norman Endorses John McCain

Straight from the campaign website:

ARLINGTON, VA -- Today, General H. Norman Schwarzkopf, U.S. Army (Ret.) issued the following statement endorsing John McCain for President of the United States:

"Senator John McCain has served our country with honor in war and in peace. He has demonstrated the type of courageous leadership our country sorely needs at this time. For that reason, he has my complete support."

John McCain thanked General Schwarzkopf for his support, stating, "General Norman Schwarzkopf's distinguished lifetime of service and uncommon devotion to our nation has earned him the respect and admiration of the American people. I am honored by his support."

John has not been in the service for decades, but he still garners the respect of those who served, and those who still do. No other candidate out there has the support of as many military leaders as John does. They understand, as do I, that he is the best bet right now to help keep America safe, and to see this Long War through.

Meeting With the UCSB College Republicans

I will be meeting with the UC Santa Barbara College Republicans tomorrow, Tuesday the 22nd at 8PM at the University Center. I will be giving a short speech, and answering questions.

State of the Campaign Part 2

This is a continuation of my previous post on the state of the campaign. So far, things are going fairly well for John as far as strategy goes. While a win in Michigan didn't happen, wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina more than make up for it, as both are far more important to the overall GOP race. Florida is next, where John currently leads the RCP average. Note that all of those polls are before South Carolina (and Nevada too), and thus before whatever surge in support John might experience, and whatever negative effect a 2% showing by Rudy Giuliani might have in a state where he lead or was tied for the lead two months ago.

So what will a Post-South Carolina and Nevada GOP race look like? Well, right now in the RCP average John has 23.2% support, Rudy has 20.3%, Mitt has 18%, Mike has 17.3% and Fred 8.5%. Ron Paul's 5% support probably is in isolation to everything else.

I expect that Rudy Giuliani's numbers will continue their steady drop, along with Mike Huckabee's to a small extent, and Fred Thompson's as well. I believe that John will enjoy a nice uptick in support, and Mitt Romney to a small extent as well. Why?

Rudy Giuliani's support in Florida is "soft", in my opinion. He has been aggressively campaigning there the past few months with little to no opposition. No other candidate has made any significant face time there. Once the others start to actively campaign in Florida, I expect his support there to erode further, as those candidates start to impress. Also, Rudy's poor showing in South Carolina and John's success will also cause a shift in support from Rudy to John. How much I can't say for sure, but I expect a point or two at least. A lot of Republicans supported Rudy because they saw him as the most electable candidate; now that John has been shown to be the most electable Republican I suspect much of his increased support lately has been shifting Rudy supporters. I see this continuing.

Mike Huckabee will lose a little support as some of his leaning supporters see he hasn't gained support among non-Evangelicals, and believe his chances of winning the nomination are effectively zero. I figure John and Romney pick up these voters.

Fred Thompson has been losing support for a while now, I expect him to keep on gradually losing support much like Rudy has. His disenchanted voters will likely switch over to Mitt or simply not vote at all.

Mitt Romney will benefit from the loss in support among Huckabee and Thompson supporters, and probably pick up a couple of points in the next poll. Also, his name recognition has been slowly increasing over time, so that will factor in as well.

We will know more once the first polls after South Carolina come out.

Victory in South Carolina

I am sure that everyone reading this blog knows by now that John McCain has won South Carolina. This is a huge win for the Senator, and restores the Momentum from his victory in New Hampshire back to him. Be sure to Contribute to the campaign to help keeping the Momentum going into Florida and beyond. If you are not yet a supporter, but are interested joining the campaign, you can sign up here. Also, you can leave comments here on this blog and I will try and get in touch with you, or you can e-mail me at sean(c)baird(@)gmail.com . Just remove the parenthesis for the address, they are an unfortunate necessity in this day of online spam-bots.

State of the Campaign Part 1

Things are approaching critical in the campaign right now.

The South Carolina primary is tomorrow, and John is currently leading the RCP average there. The good news there is that while a couple of polls show Huckabee tied with John, none show Huckabee leading. Hence it seems John has at least a slight edge going into the primary. South Carolina is Fred Thompson's "firewall" state. If he loses there, odds are good he will at the very least be crippled, and might even drop out. I suspect he will stay in until Super Tuesday, counting on grabbing some delegates in southern states and hoping for a brokered convention, where he has a decent chance of winning.

South Carolina may determine who wins Florida. If John wins South Carolina, he stands a good chance of winning in Florida, where he is leading the RCP average. Winning Florida is huge for several reasons. Its a big state, and shows the likely outcome of other big states come Super Tuesday. Secondly, its right now a winner-take-all state, which means the winner would accumulate a huge number of delegates, and quite possibly take the lead. Most importantly, its the last major primary before Super Tuesday, and would provide a good surge of momentum going into February 5th. Florida is Rudy Giuliani's firewall state, if he loses there he will suffer a crippling blow from which there is no recovery. Florida represents Rudy's only chance to reverse weeks of cratering in the polls, both nationally, and in major states like California. A loss there means any chance of his winning the nomination is gone. Unfortunately for Rudy, and fortunately for John, even a win in Florida will probably not be enough. He is almost out of money, and the week from Florida to Super Tuesday won't be enough time to build the necessary war chest. And probably not enough time to reverse the trends either.


State of the Candidates:

John McCain has the clearest path to the nomination right now. He is ahead in both South Carolina and Florida, and leading in national polls right now as well. The latter is good news for Super Tuesday. He is also the most electable, doing the best in head-to-head match-ups against the major Democratic contendors.

Mitt Romney has abandoned South Carolina. He is instead hunting delegates in Nevada instead. This is smart, from a mathematical delegating hunting point of view. The problem is that all of the media focus for the Republicans will be on South Carolina; a place where it looks like he will at best reach third. This will not look good for his campaign, which invested quite a lot of time and money there for many months. The Nevada news cycle will be preoccupied with
the Hillary/Obama showdown. A Romney win will be largely overshadowed. Romney's strategy is in disarray. His plan centered on winning Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Then it would have been a momentum push to knock out Giuliani in Florida and cruise to a Super Tuesday victory. Now it looks like he won't win any of those three. This means he won't gain the national attention as front-runner he needed for his previous strategy to work. His only asset? Money. But is he willing to spend millions more of his own money on a risky strategy of a long slog to grab delegates? Still, he has a long shot of it.

Mike Huckabee is playing the role of an insurgent of sorts right now. He is grabbing a large chunk of the Evangelical vote, and seems to have sewed much of it up. Unfortunately for him, he hasn't broadened his base any. This means he will effectively be a regional candidate, doing well only in states with plenty of Evangelicals, which means mostly the South. His chances of winning are low. Many economic conservatives openly detest him for his fiscal policies, and will not support him. Foreign poliicy conservatives also express great concern for him, and would much rather support a stalwart like John McCain. He has almost no chance of winning a brokered convention. At the moment his is mostly a foil for Fred and Mitt, keeping social conservatives away from them.


Fred Thompson dropped the ball. His late entry into the race, and his campaign's poor organization, meant that he was never able to attract the core conservatives he needed to win. He is almost out of money, and is currently polling at around 3rd in South Carolina, his only chance to win a state before Super Tuesday. While very few dislike him, not enough people support him for his campaign to carry through. His only real chance of a win is in a brokered convention, where his status as many people's second choice (including yours truly) will give an edge. His role at this moment seems to be a spoiler for Romney, taking away core conservatives who might otherwise support him.

Rudy Giuliani was the effective front-runner of the Republican candidates for a while. No longer. His national numbers have tanked, his state numbers are doing the same. It now looks as if he will not place in the top third in any of the primaries and caucuses to date. That means he will be 0/15 for top three spots until January 31st at best. His campaign is falling apart, with many of his supporters choosing to support John McCain instead. Rudy banked on a late-state strategy; that is, focusing on the big state of Florida and then hoping to sweep the field on Super Tuesday. That strategy has now shown itself to be fool-hardy. By losing so many elections in a row, Giuliani has not reinforced his supporters or refilled his campaign coffers. Also, the only news that Rudy has gotten in the last few weeks or so has been bad news. At the moment, Rudy's only hope is a miracle win in Florida, followed by a massive, unrealistic wave of momentum that can erase weeks of atrophy. Like Mike Huckabee, Rudy has an almost zero chance of winning a brokered convention. His social views are anathema to too many Republicans.


So who are the Republicans, right now, who can win the GOP nomination? John McCain, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson

John's path to the nomination is clearest, with wins in South Carolina and Florida visible. This means a strong Super Tuesday showing, and a easy follow through. Even if that doesn't work out, he can still win a delegate hunt strategy, thanks to high national poll numbers. John also has a good chance in a brokered convention, based on the fact that he is the most electable, and has the highest support and lowest disapproval among the Republicans.

Mitt Romney right now has perhaps the second best path to the nomination, but its really not that great, just better than everyone else. Right now his best hope is to win Florida thanks to a divided field, use the momentum to push his national numbers up and grab enough delegates on Super Tuesday to outlast everyone and win a delegate hunt. He has a decent chance in a brokered convention, at least on the basis of positioning himself well to attract support from all wings of the party. However, the other candidates dislike him and his core opposition is the highest among all the candidates.

Fred Thompson's chance of winning a general primary campaign are nearly non-existent, however he stands an excellent chance in a brokered convention. That is still a possibility, especially if Rudy wins in Florida and recovers some lost ground on Super Tuesday.


More on the State of the Campaign on Sunday, the 20th, after the South Carolina Primary and Nevada Caucuses.

South Carolina May be McCain's...

The South Carolina primary is a few days away, and things are looking good for John. He is leading in the RCP average. He has had a number of major newspaper endorsements there, including the leading paper in the State. The Rock Hill Herald and Charleston Post and Courier have also endorsed John McCain.

This is capped by the fact that Mitt Romney, who just won the Michigan primary, is ending his campaigning in South Carolina and instead focusing on the much less contested, and ultimately less important, Nevada Caucuses. The reason why? Romney internal polls seem to indicate that South Carolina may be John McCain's.

John Gets Another Major Endorsement

This time from Oklahoma Senator Tom Coburn:

"I am honored to be here in South Carolina today, and I am very proud to endorse my friend and colleague Senator John McCain for President of the United States. John McCain and I have stood side-by-side on many issues and I'd like to speak to two of them today -- fiscal responsibility and ensuring the sanctity of human life.

"Much has been made in this presidential campaign about the need for change in Washington. Candidates from both sides of the aisle have talked about bringing real reform to the federal government. But, only one candidate has a record of putting his money where his mouth is, and that's John McCain.

"Since I came to Congress in 1995, I have met one true reformer -- John McCain. He has the unique blend of character, guts, and experience needed to transform Washington from the inside out. He is beholden to no special interest. He is guided by strong conservative principles, and committed to doing what he believes is right without concern for political consequence.

"John McCain has never been afraid to take the road less traveled, and he has fought wasteful spending at every turn along the way. He's saved taxpayers untold billions, and he has rightfully earned the reputation as the Senate's number one fiscal hawk. I trust that as president, John McCain will veto any pork-barrel bill that crosses his desk, and will make the authors famous.

"When it comes to ensuring the sanctity of human life, you will find no one stronger on the issue than Senator McCain. For twenty-four years, John McCain has been an unwavering voice in Congress for the rights of the unborn.

"For those reasons and more, I urge voters here in South Carolina and across the country to join me in supporting John McCain for president."

Tom has consistently been one of the biggest opponents of pork-barrel spending in Congress, and his support shows once again that John McCain remains the best shot we have in '08 of controlling spending in D.C.

Onward to South Carolina

Mitt Romney has finally gotten that first place he has spent so much time and money trying to get, and congratulations to him on that. As the saying goes, he lives on to fight another day. Now, however, South Carolina's turn approaches. John is currently leading in several of the last polls there, including this Zogby poll. The RCP average in South Carolina has John up by 2.5%, but that includes a poll from before New Hampshire which shows Huckabee up by a lot. Most importantly, All the polls have Romney quite a bit behind John, which means that his win in Michigan may not be nearly enough to help out Mitt.

Michigan Primary Today

Michigan holds its primary today. It looks like its going to be a tough race between Mitt Romney and John McCain, with Mike Huckabee playing the possible role of spoiler.

Michigan is Mitt Romney's home state, and so he is playing from a home field advantage here, plus the fact that he has dumped millions of dollars here as well recently. However, John still has the momentum from New Hampshire, and was recently endorsed by former Governor Milliken.

More Newspaper Endorsements

The Bradenton Herald, in Florida has endorsed John McCain.

Another endorsement comes from the Times-Herald, in Michigan.

And the Greenville News, in South Carolina, has also endorsed John McCain.

The State Endorses John McCain

The State, South Carolina's leading newspaper, has endorsed John McCain for President.

FOR SOUTH CAROLINA, and to some extent for the nation, the choice among Republican candidates for president has come down to two men.

First Rudy Giuliani, then Mitt Romney looked at political realities and fled the Palmetto State, deciding their priorities lay elsewhere. Fred Thompson seems to be running in this first-in-the-South primary just to say he did. Ron Paul keeps on being Ron Paul, former nominee of the Libertarian Party.

The two remaining contenders here happen to be the two strongest candidates — Mike Huckabee and John McCain. Gov. Huckabee is an exciting newcomer who shows a wonderful ability to connect with voters’ concerns, and Republicans could do far worse than to choose him. But his utter lack of knowledge of foreign affairs is unsettling.

It’s not just about Iraq and Afghanistan. As freshly demonstrated by the incident involving U.S. warships in the Strait of Hormuz last week and the assassination earlier of the opposition leader in the world’s most volatile democracy (which possesses nuclear weapons, and shelters Osama bin Laden), our commander in chief will need a far broader and deeper understanding of our relationship to the world than on-the-job training can adequately provide.

Clearly, the best Republican candidate to lead our nation at this time is U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona. He has the necessary experience, not just in time served, but in the quality of understanding he exhibits across the board.

The value of his experience is multiplied by his integrity and independence. He is a slave to no ideology or faction. Not only will he work with anyone who wants to do the right thing anytime, he is usually the driving force at the head of coalitions to get the job done — from the Gang of 14 that broke Senate gridlock and paved the way for the confirmation of conservative judges to his principled leadership on campaign finance reform. He knew the political risk he took leading the quest for a comprehensive solution to illegal immigration, but he believed securing our borders was too important a priority not to try.

He is deeply respected by his colleagues in both parties, despite the fact that, as he jokes, he has never sought the “Miss Congeniality” title. No one is as likely as he to fight, expose and defeat waste, fraud or corruption.

Experience, certainly. Integrity, even more so. But John McCain’s most conspicuous virtue is courage. He is a brave and tough man who unlike some candidates has no need to bluster, but is able to speak with humility and generosity to those with whom he disagrees. A McCain presidency would do much to restore confidence in American leadership, at home and abroad.

There is of course the extraordinary physical and moral courage that he displayed as a prisoner of war in Vietnam, where he withstood nightmarish torture for years rather than let his country or his comrades down. But he also possesses the kind of political fortitude that keeps him from giving up on any worthwhile quest. He evinces a wisdom born in pain, a confidence earned in many battles. When others despair, John McCain knows he has seen worse, and keeps striding forward.

For much of the past year, his candidacy was dismissed, his support depleted, his coffers empty. He kept on, and gradually won the doubters back to his cause.

More to the point, consider the wisdom and courage he has displayed with regard to our nation’s struggle in Iraq. For four years, he was nearly alone in his insistent criticism of the Bush administration for sending too few troops to quell the violence. When the president finally adopted the McCain approach a year ago, the senator lent Gen. David Petraeus his unwavering support at a time when so many in both major parties either thought he was wrong, or simply lacked the courage to stand with him. He was right all along.

John McCain has shown more clearly than anyone on the American political scene today that he loves his country, and would never mislead or dishonor it. He is almost unique in his determination to do what is right, whatever the cost. And he usually has a clear vision of what’s right.

So it is that we confidently and enthusiastically endorse John McCain for the Republican nomination for president of the United States.

A Good Day for John McCain...

...and a bad, bad, terrible day for Rudy Giuliani.

First, The Tampa Bay Tribune has endorsed John McCain for the Republican nomination. In their words:

No matter the distractions of this election season, national security is the paramount issue facing our country and McCain has the best foreign-policy resume, bar none.

McCain is a decorated war veteran and sits on the Senate committees that oversee foreign affairs and the armed services. He has a deep knowledge about the threats we face. He knows the players. He could hit the ground running.

McCain is a known quantity, unlike some of the celebrity candidates. While we haven't always agreed with him - the campaign-finance reform he passed with Wisconsin Democrat Russ Feingold was flawed on many levels -we respect his backbone, his honesty and his unwavering patriotism.

McCain showed uncommon political courage last summer by backing President Bush's decision to increase troop strength in Baghdad. Actually, the senator recommended this strategy after famously comparing former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's bare-bones strategy to the game of whack-a-mole. "I would much rather lose a campaign than lose a war," he said. How do you not respect that?

I agree with the Tribune's assessment. Now is the time for John McCain to lead America. This endorsement is bad news for Rudy Giuliani, who has campaigned hard on security issues. Many agree, including myself, that it is John is who is better prepared to deal with those issues.

Compounding this is a new national poll that indicates that John McCain is the clear national leader right now among the Republican Party. While not a great indicator for the upcoming Michigan and South Carolina primaries, it does provide some insight into Super Tuesday on February 5th.

To make matters worse for Rudy, a new SurveyUSA poll shows that John McCain is now leading in Florida. Florida has always been Rudy's "firewall" state. He has poured most of his resources into the state, and a loss there would not only deny him the momentum he hoped to have for Super Tuesday, it would likely shatter much of his support nationwide. He has already shown major erosion in support, this would be the final nail in the coffin of his campaign.

The Mac's Extraordinary Comeback

McCain's people couldn't believe it. Just this summer he had been given up for dead politically.

He lost his top staffers. He had run out of money. He had to shutdown campaign offices. He couldn't pay the rent. His campaign was dragging bottom.

Then thanks to an assist from loyal friends and neighbors - and the adoption of some serious belt tightening measures - McCain was able to right his campaign.

Today, the McCain campaign is hitting on all eight cylinders. And causing waves.

"Mac is back."

Read the rest here.

South Carolina Debate Tonight!

Fox News is hosting a Republican debate tonight in South Carolina at 6 PM PST, 9 PM EST. Be sure to tune in.

The Surge- One Year In

It is now one year since the Surge has been put into effect. Senator's John McCain and Joe Lieberman, the later has endorsed John for President, by the way, have written an article in the Wall Street Journal explaining that the surge has worked:

It was exactly one year ago tonight, in a televised address to the nation, that President George W. Bush announced his fateful decision to change course in Iraq, and to send five additional U.S. combat brigades there as part of a new counterinsurgency strategy and under the command of a new general, David Petraeus.

At the time of its announcement, the so-called surge was met with deep skepticism by many Americans -- and understandably so.

After years of mismanagement of the war, many people had grave doubts about whether success in Iraq was possible. In Congress, opposition to the surge from antiwar members was swift and severe. They insisted that Iraq was already "lost," and that there was nothing left to do but accept our defeat and retreat.

In fact, they could not have been more wrong. And had we heeded their calls for retreat, Iraq today would be a country in chaos: a failed state in the heart of the Middle East, overrun by al Qaeda and Iran.

Be sure to read the rest.

Here is a short press release in addition to the WSJ article:

"A year ago today the president announced that five additional brigades would be deployed to Iraq, which Osama bin Laden's top lieutenant called a central battlefront in al Qaeda's war against us. I had long argued that a change in course in Iraq was critical to achieve success there. Today, thanks to the tremendous leadership of General Petraeus and the bravery of our troops, the surge is working.

"When the troop surge and new counterinsurgency campaign was first implemented, many politicians either outright opposed it or equivocated and hedged, but I was convinced that the new counterinsurgency plan was sound and the courage of our ground commander and his troops would prevail over the Islamist extremist enemy. Today, operations by American forces, in partnership with our Iraqi allies, have put the terrorists on the defensive, yielded significant intelligence on our enemies, and turned Iraq around from the direction it was headed. We will succeed in Iraq if we don't lose our resolve. We must not succumb to the calls of some for retreat. We will not surrender, our enemies will."

Michigan is Next

John is in South Carolina right now, prepping for the Fox News Debate. He will campaign in South Carolina tomorrow as well, but on Tuesday he is heading back to Michigan in preparation for the Primary there on the 15th.


Here is the RCP average for Michigan.

I will throw in South Carolina as well.

Reaction to John's Victory in New Hampshire

USA Today is writing that John McCain is "Back on Track."

McCain won New Hampshire by reviving echoes of his 2000 campaign with a "Mac is back" tour aboard the "Straight Talk Express" campaign bus and more than 100 town hall meetings that often featured colorful exchanges. When an undecided voter told him over the weekend he was in political "purgatory," McCain said: "It's a step up from where I was last summer."

The Arizonan again sought support from political independents who are eligible to vote in either primary in New Hampshire.

In this campaign, however, McCain spent more time discussing his experiences as a Vietnam prisoner of war. He also emphasized his Senate work on national security issues, particularly the Iraq war. He voiced support for last year's troop increase in Iraq, and took credit for influencing that strategy.

The Wall Street writes about "McCain's Mojo."

The race now heads to Michigan next week, where independents can also vote and where Mr. McCain prevailed in 2000. Mr. Romney signaled that he'll also fight in a state where his father was once Governor, offering his latest retooled theme that he's the Republican Obama, the best man to "change" Washington.

While making that case this week, however, he also made the same mistake he did in Iowa, assuming that immigration was the kill shot against his opponents. Yet the smooth businessman never seemed natural impersonating Tom Tancredo. Mr. Romney is now portraying Mr. McCain, a four-term Senator, as an "insider." But this may also be a tough sell considering Mr. McCain's status as an outside insider, someone who has never been part of the Senate club.

Mr. McCain's opportunity -- and challenge -- is to show that he is now the best candidate to unite the anxious and fractious wings of the Republican coalition. With Rudy Giuliani suspect among cultural conservatives, and Mike Huckabee trashing Wall Street and corporations, Mr. McCain is now the candidate best positioned to appeal to all Republican voters.

Ana Marie Cox writes in Time about Making McCain's Momentum Count for More.

But it's worth remembering that the arguments of consultants have a half-life shorter than a gnat in this race. McCain's campaign in New Hampshire is itself evidence of the unpredictability of this election. (Romney outspent McCain by a margin of at least four to one here, for one thing.) In the hours before results started to come in, top McCain aides were still unsure if they would even win.

As for McCain himself, he wisely does not try to explain his victory in linear narratives. The morning of the primary, wearing the same green sweater and staying in the same room as in 2000, he explained his own strategy for the day: "There is no superstition I won't indulge," he said. "I believe in luck."

Lastly, the Boston Herald discusses the important of New Hampshire's Picks.

There is something more than sweet about last night's solid victory for Sen. John McCain over former Gov. Mitt Romney. And it's not just about the Mac-is-back aspect of this incredible political season.

No, it's yet another lesson from yet another state that money can't buy voters' loyalty and negative doesn't work - not when people get an up-close and personal look at the candidates as they do in the Granite State.

The focus-driven politics of the Romney campaign were in the end no match for McCain's Straight Talk Express - dusted off from his 2000 New Hampshire victory and still a symbol of all that is right with the McCain campaign.

Thoughts on Yesterday

I have had the time to do some thinking on yesterday's primary election in New Hampshire. It really was a surprising election. The Democratic race was much tighter than I expected, and Hillary's win certainly was a shock to pretty much everyone, me included. For the Republican side, John's victory margin was larger than I feared it would be, he and the New Hampshire team really pulled it off there.

For the Democrats, it looks like they are in for a serious race. This is good for the GOP, as it means more money is going to be spent on the primaries that could be spent in the general election. Also, with luck the fight between Hillary and Barack will be nasty enough that it will sap support for the nominee when the general election comes around.

Once again, Mitt Romney has proven you can't buy the Presidency. His loss can be hinged, once again, on his lack of authenticity, a trait that would almost certain guarantee a GOP loss in November, especially against Barack Obama. There is also that aspect of his that Mike Huckabee has pointed out: he seems too much like the guy who would fire you, not the guy you would share a beer with at the bar watching the game. Its not just a matter of likability; Mitt isn't able to convince voters that he understands their situation and can relate to it. This crucial flaw can't be overcome with any amount of money. Mitt might be able to win Michigan, his family has considerable ties there. But I don't see him surging to the lead. He had counted on the double win of Iowa and New Hampshire to give him a huge amount of momentum and front-runner status. That almost was the case for Barack Obama, and it certainly wasn't the case for Mitt. If Mitt does make a comeback, I don't see him as being able to dominate his way to a majority. That means a brokered convention. Which is still a possibility, either way.

John McCain on his Comeback Victory

Here are John's words in full:

Thank you.

My friends, I am past the age when I can claim the noun, "kid," no matter what adjective precedes it. But tonight we sure showed them what a comeback looks like. When the pundits declared us finished, I told them, "I'm going to New Hampshire, where the voters don't let you make their decision for them." And when they asked, "how are you going to do it? You're down in the polls. You don't have the money." I answered, "I'm going to New Hampshire, and I'm going to tell people the truth."

We came back here to this wonderful state we've come to trust and love. And we had just one strategy: to tell you what I believe. I didn't just tell you what the polls said you wanted to hear. I didn't tell you what I knew to be false. I didn't try to spin you. I just talked to the people of New Hampshire. I talked about the country we love; the many challenges we face together; and the great promise that is ours to achieve; the work that awaits us in this hour, on our watch: to defend our country from its enemies; to advance the ideals that are our greatest strength; to increase the prosperity and opportunities of all Americans and to make in our time, as each preceding American generation has, another, better world than the one we inherited.

I talked to the people of New Hampshire. I reasoned with you. I listened to you. I answered you. Sometimes, I argued with you. But I always told you the truth, as best as I can see the truth. And you did me the great honor of listening. Thank you, New Hampshire, from the bottom my heart. I am grateful and humbled and more certain than ever that before I can win your vote, I must win your respect. And I must do that by being honest with you, and then put my trust in your fairness and good judgment.

Tonight, we have taken a step, but only the first step toward repairing the broken politics of the past and restoring the trust of the American people in their government. The people of New Hampshire have told us again that they do not send us to Washington to serve our self-interest, but to serve theirs. They don't send us to fight each other for our own political ambitions; but to fight together our real enemies. They don't send us to Washington to stroke our egos; but to help them keep this beautiful, bountiful, blessed country safe, prosperous and proud. They don't send us to Washington to take more of their money, and waste it on things that add not an ounce to America's strength and prosperity; that don't help a single family realize the dreams we all dream for our children; that don't help a single displaced worker find a new job, and the security and dignity it assures them; that won't keep the promise we make to young workers that the retirement they have begun to invest in, will be there for them when they need it. They don't send us to Washington to do their job, but to do ours.

My friends, I didn't go to Washington to go along, to get along or to play it safe to serve my own interests. I went there to serve my country. And that, my friends, is just what I intend to do if I am so privileged to be elected your President.

I seek the nomination of a party that believes in the strength, industry, and goodness of the American people. We don't believe that government has all the answers, but that it should respect the rights, property and opportunities of the people to whom we are accountable. We don't believe in growing the size of government to make it easier to serve our own ambitions. But what government is expected to do, it must do with competence, resolve and wisdom. In recent years, we have lost the trust of the people, who share our principles, but doubt our own allegiance to them. I seek the nomination of our party to restore that trust; to return our party to the principles that have never failed Americans: The party of fiscal discipline, low taxes; enduring values; a strong and capable defense; that encourages the enterprise and ingenuity of individuals, businesses and families, who know best how to advance America's economy, and secure the dreams that have made us the greatest nation in history.

The work that we face in our time is great, but our opportunities greater still. In a time of war, and the terrible sacrifices it entails, the promise of a better future is not always clear. But I promise you, my friends, we face no enemy, no matter how cruel; and no challenge, no matter how daunting, greater than the courage, patriotism and determination of Americans. We are the makers of history, not its victims. And as we confront this enemy, the people privileged to serve in public office should not evade our mutual responsibility to defeat them because we are more concerned with personal or partisan ambition. Whatever the differences between us, so much more should unite us. And nothing should unite us more closely than the imperative of defeating an enemy who despises us, our values and modernity itself. We must all pull together in this critical hour and proclaim that the history of the world will not be determined by this unpardonable foe, but by the aspirations, ideals, faith and courage of free people. In this great, historic task, we will never surrender. They will.

The results of the other party's primary is uncertain at this time, but I want to congratulate all the campaigns in both parties. I salute the supporters of all the candidates who worked so hard to achieve a success tonight and who believe so passionately in the promise of their candidate. And I want to assure them that though I did not have their support, and though we may disagree from time to time on how best to advance America's interests and ideals, they have my genuine respect. For they have worked for a cause they believe is good for the country we all love, a cause greater than their self-interest.

I learned long ago that serving only oneself is a petty and unsatisfying ambition. But serve a cause greater than self-interest and you will know a happiness far more sublime than the fleeting pleasure of fame and fortune. For me that greater cause has always been my country, which I have served imperfectly for many years, but have loved without any reservation every day of my life. And however this campaign turns out -- and I am more confident tonight that it will turn out much better than once expected -- I am grateful beyond expression for the prospect that I might serve her a little while longer. That gratitude imposes on me the responsibility to do nothing in this campaign that would make our country's problems harder to solve or that would cause Americans to despair that a candidate for the highest office in the land would think so little of the honor that he would put his own interests before theirs. I take that responsibility as my most solemn trust.

So, my friends, we celebrate one victory tonight and leave for Michigan tomorrow to win another. But let us remember that our purpose is not ours alone; our success is not an end in itself. America is our cause -- yesterday, today, and tomorrow. Her greatness is our hope; her strength is our protection; her ideals our greatest treasure; her prosperity the promise we keep to our children; her goodness the hope of mankind. That is the cause of our campaign and the platform of my party, and I will stay true to it so help me God.

Thank you, New Hampshire. Thank you, my friends, and God bless you as you have blessed me. Enjoy this. You have earned it more than me. Tomorrow, we begin again.

Hillary's Victory in NH

I have to admit, I predicted that Obama would win. Now it seems Hillary pulled out a tight victory. The Democratic race, far from being almost over, appears to be destined to be a real fight.

The Mac is Back

John McCain has won the New Hampshire primary. Dismissed as dead months ago, John has proven once again that he is indeed the "Comeback Kid." The momentum is on John's side now. Keep it going by contributing to the campaign. Sign up to volunteer at the Campaign Website. Feb. 4th is only weeks away, we need to be ready for when it comes around.

New Hampshire Gets its Chance

Today is the long awaited New Hampshire Presidential Primary. Most polls show John McCain ahead, both in the support of Republicans and especially independents. John is very confident right now, and I feel reason to as well. The Romney camp has to express confidence, their plan all along was to win 2 out of the big 3 early primary/caucus states. Iowa was a loss, a loss in NH would be another huge setback to a candidate would has thrown money around like no one else on the GOP field.

Side Note: I am working on the speech I intend to give to the Cal Poly College Republicans tonight, I will post parts from it before-hand, giving some thoughts on why I support John McCain for President, among other things.

Tuesday's Events

Tomorrow is the New Hampshire Presidential Primary. So far nearly all the polls show John McCain ahead. His momentum in the state has been strong in the state, even before Mitt Romney lost in Iowa. So I don't think I am making a major prediction when I say that John will win the Republican primary, and Obama will win the Democratic primary. As for the margin of victory, I am guessing 3 to 5% for John, and maybe 7 to 10% for Obama.

Also, tomorrow I will be addressing the Cal Poly College Republicans at 7:00 PM at the McPhee University Union, room 216. I intend to explain why I support John McCain, and will also promote some ideas on how to help the GOP in the general election and beyond.

The Kemp Coup

Jack Kemp, former Congressman and Housing Secretary, has endorsed John McCain for President. Larry Kudlow, writing in the National Review's blog The Corner, says this is quite a coup for Senator McCain. Here is his full post:

Jack Kemp’s endorsement of Sen. John McCain for president is both interesting and significant. Kemp was one of the founders of the Reagan supply-side tax-cutting movement. And of course, he’s been a prominent free-market advocate for economic-growth policies for several decades.

I have not yet reached Jack for details of his thinking on the McCain endorsement.

The former-Buffalo, New York, House member/Housing secretary and 1996 GOP vice-presidential candidate would surely be able to relieve doubts about Sen. McCain’s tax-cutting intentions should he become president. While Sen. McCain has been criticized for voting against the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003, it is important to recall that the Arizonan did vote for the Reagan tax cuts back in the 1980s.

McCain has steadfastly maintained on the campaign trail that he would preserve the Bush tax cuts on capital gains, dividends, and personal incomes that are set to expire in 2010.

Kemp would join former Sen. Phil Gramm as key McCain economic advisors. As I noted in an earlier post, Phil Gramm is the quintessential free-market advocate. He spent a career in the House and Senate limiting government spending, taxing, and regulating.

Both Kemp and Gramm are strong free-trade supporters. Gramm was also the original sponsor of the Reagan tax-and-spending cuts back in 1981 in the Gramm-Latta bill reported out of the House. That bill incorporated Jack Kemp’s original proposal to slash personal tax rates by 30 percent across the board.

Down through the years, Jack Kemp has been a tireless advocate of economic growth through supply-side tax reform and free trade. Getting him on board is a real coup for Sen. McCain.

This is indeed quite an endorsement. While John has drawn a lot of criticism from Republicans on issues like Campaign Finance Reform and Immigration, a number have also attacked his stance on economic issues like taxes. This should go a long way to show that John McCain is indeed a strident fiscal conservative. He is for government solvency as well as tax cuts, which is not something that can be said for many conservatives. He is also consistently the biggest defender of free trade among all the contenders for the nomination this year.

Also, in further endorsement news the Detroit Free Press has endorsed Senator McCain for the Republican nomination. A short excerpt:

Eight years ago, endorsing U.S. Sen. John McCain in the Michigan Republican presidential primary, the Free Press said he was "an articulate hardliner on how the United States should lead the world" and the best candidate in a GOP field that included George W. Bush. McCain won Michigan, but that proved to be the high-water mark of a campaign that collapsed shortly thereafter, outspent and outmaneuvered by the Bush forces. Eight years later, he is running again, and JOHN McCAIN is, again, the best candidate to carry the GOP banner into the fall. While the Free Press differs with McCain on a number of issues, the Arizona senator is a smarter, more tested and pragmatic leader who has shown since 2000 that he knows how to build bipartisan alliances around issues. He's a straight shooter, sometimes to his detriment in the political world, where McCain also loses points for persistently championing needed campaign reforms and criticizing pork-barrel spending that benefits special interests. McCain's latest campaign faltered early in this overextended election season. But he has regrouped, and while polls do not show him as the GOP front-runner, they do consistently show that he fares best against any of the leading Democrats. That has to be a consideration for Republican voters with the party expected to lose more ground in Congress next year. McCain, with his appeal to independent voters, looks at this time like the best bet to keep the White House in GOP hands.

The full endorsement can be read here.

Tune in this Weekend

Sorry for the late posting. For those of you who didn't catch it, there was a debate this Saturday in which John took part on ABC. It should be broadcast at 7 PM here in the Central Coast.

Also, on Sunday John will be on Meet the Press at 8AM PST. Later, he will be on Face the Nation. Finally, there will be another debate on Fox at 8 PM EST, hopefully 5 PM PST.

On to New Hampshire!

Well, Iowa is done and over with. The consequences we shall soon find out in full. So far, it appears to have made the Democratic race a real one, with Obama and Hillary looking set to fight it out for a while at least.

As for the Republican race, Huckabee has confirmed his move into the front tier. Romney has suffered a pretty significant defeat. While a lot of pro-Romney people are saying that Huckabee's bigoted attacks, and playing himself up as a "Christian leader" are to blame, I think that its mainly an issue of authenticity. Romney wasn't convincing a lot of Evangelicals on his social views, and they fled to Huckabee, or rather flocked. Unlike Romney, Huckabee had a record of social conservatism, and the genuine charisma to convince people of it. Sincerity matters in politics. Romney is learning that money may be the mother's milk of politics, but it is sincerity that makes it sweet tasting.

I should note that Real Clear Politics has John McCain currently leading in New Hampshire. The trend lines all have shown themselves to be in John's direction. Most important, those polls are all before Romney's significant loss in Iowa. At the very least, he has no momentum going into New Hampshire to turn around John's recent rise in support. And some of his less committed supporters have to be wondering just how viable he really is. Money is the only thing Romney has going for him, and that didn't save him in Iowa.

Iowa Round-Up

Well, it looks like my predictions for the Democrats were correct. Obama won, with Edwards barely above Hillary.

I admit, I am surprised by just how well Huckabee performed. Romney is in trouble, thats for sure. He has no momentum to help him in New Hampshire. As for third and fourth, John McCain and Fred Thompson are currently trading places.

More as it comes along.

Iowa's Turn to Shine

The Iowa Caucuses are tonight, with three major issues at stake here. Firstly, who wins the Democratic caucuses? Many polls show a virtual tie, the effect of Iowa could be to sink Edwards, give him a shot in South Carolina, or gift Obama with some major momentum in New Hampshire, or it could support the notion of an inevitable Hillary victory?

My take: Toss up between Edwards and Obama winning, with Hillary getting second at best, I wouldn't be shocked to see her get third, which would help Obama in NH, and Edwards in SC. Its really a question of Edward's organization or Obama's enthusiasm.

The second major story will be who gets first among the Republicans, Huckabee or Romney. A Huckabee win could provide him the chance to break out and move onward to states like South Carolina. A Romney win could stop Huckabee cold, and help him recover lost ground in New Hampshire.

Among the Democrats, who gets fourth is a moot point, only the top three have a chance of winning. Among the Republicans, that is a different story entirely. The third and fourth place finishes could matter a great deal. If Fred Thompson gets third, he has a shot in South Carolina. If he doesn't get third, rumors are floating around that he will drop out. I don't know if this is true or not, I suspect he will stick around until at least South Carolina. However, a fourth place finish in a place he essentially called his home these past few weeks will probably be the nail in the coffin. If John McCain gets third place, it will provide him a boost going into New Hampshire. If he can poll third in the home of ethanol, while actively denouncing subsidies, especially of ethanol, it will only reinforce the surge John has been enjoying lately. A lower placing won't be shocking, however, given that same opposition to ethanol subsidies. At this point Ron Paul is mostly a spoiler, taking away fourth, which would hurt Thompson the most.

So what is going to happen? Its tough to say, given the poll irregularity lately.

My brother's take, for the Democrats at least, is that Ewards wins Iowa, followed by Obama then Clinton.

My take? Obama, then Edwards then Clinton, with Clinton possibly trailing quite a lot.

For the Republicans, I think its too close to call between Huckabee and Romney. I give it a 50/50 chance of either winning, but I do predict that John McCain will take third. The real question will be if Ron Paul takes fourth, instead of Thompson; should that happen those rumors of Thompson dropping out just might be true after all.

The important thing in all of this is that a lot of undecided voters remain. Whether they decide to vote or not, and who they vote for, can really skew the results.

News Update

I forgot to mention that several more newspapers have endorsed John McCain recently.

The Concord Monitor is one. Its a liberal rag, to be true, but they are picking the most electable Republican out there, so its not self-serving on their part.

The Detroit News has also endorsed John McCain. A short excerpt:

No matter whose ox is being gored, John McCain puts the country first. He is the leading critic of congressional earmarks to fund pork-barrel projects. He has co-sponsored campaign reforms to slow the influence of money in politics. He will use the veto pen if necessary to curb the growth of the federal government (nearly 50 percent during the past seven years).

The latest federal budget included more than 11,000 earmark projects worth roughly $20 billion -- or 12 times the number of earmarks in the 1996 budget. It will take a strong advocate for fiscal discipline in the White House to get spending under control. McCain has the experience to know when the economy needs a helping hand from the government, and when it would be better off without tinkering. Unlike Huckabee, he would not be tempted to respond to an economic bump with populist solutions that do more harm than good.

I don't agree with John on everything, but I know he will always put his country first, ahead of his own interests. I know thats not the case for the Democrats, and for some Republicans I have my doubts. I don't when it comes to John McCain.

John McCain now Leading in NH

The latest poll is out, and it shows John McCain leading in NH with 31% of the vote. This poll is consistent with the trends we have been seeing for the last few weeks, showing John steadily rising in the polls in NH. John is also rising in Iowa and the national polls as well, where Rasmussen shows him with a slight edge.

Update: My apologies, the poll was the 7News/Suffolk University Poll.